Pricing

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Sun, 05/22/2016 - 13:47

Chandra Nalaar

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Joined: 01/25/2015 - 13:24

Pricing

I may be wrong but no matter how many times i reanalyse these i get the same results (i reanalyse because people keep telling me i'm wrong)

Provided these two conditions:
- Vesper Breastplate +0 is relatively easy to buy (there are many sell offers) and it's price is a stable 250kk adena
- EAS is represented by 10kk price and it's availability is unlimited

Vesper Breastplate +4 will be worth exactly 435kk adena
Vesper Breastplate +5 will be worth exactly 667,5kk adena

You might be thinking: Bullshiz you can't give a price to over-enchanted items because its all probability you can get lucky or unlucky it just doesn't make sense no matter how long you try the enchanted item cannot have a stable value blablablablablablablabla

Would you pay 2kkkk for Vesper Breastplate +4?
Would you pay 50kk for Vesper Breastplate +4? Gladly?
Would you pay 265kk for Vesper Breastplate +4? Why? Why not?

Imagine gamble like this: You pay 1$ and roll the dice. If you roll 6 you get 6$. Would you play it? Why is it a "fair" gamble? You can be lucky or unlucky if i roll two times and get 6 both times i get 10$ for free and if i roll ten times for nothing i lost 10$ its unfair!

The chance of success of over-enchanting any item piece by 1 is 2/3 (66,7%). That doesn't mean that from 3 tries you will get 2 successes - it's up to luck. But does indeed mean that if you get 2 successes from 3 tries you're neither lucky nor unlucky. Also it means that probability_of_getting_3_successes*3xprice_of_succesfully_enchanted_breastplates ============= probability_of_loss*money_lost.
^ignore that line xD
If you get 2 successes from 3 tries you're neither lucky nor unlucky... That means that 2 new items should be worth the same as 3 old items plus price of all wasted EAS
x- price of new item (vesper breastplate +4, for example)
y- price of old item (vesper breastplate +3 in this example)
z- price of EAS
2x = 3y + 3z
x = 1,5y + 1,5z
This equation is easy enough to calculate without writing anything down (at least for me) but we can skip EAS (z) if you want:
x = 1,5y
That means that Vesper Breastplate +4 should cost 50% more than Vesper Breastplate +3. Now scroll up to what i wrote about prices:
+0 - 250kk implies +3 280kk
+4 - 435kk = 280kk*1,5 + 10kk*1,5 (the equation)

+4 = 435kk
+5 = (435+10)*1,5 = 667,5kk
+6 = (667,5+10)*1,5 = 1kkk

From what i see many people say it's too high, but it's the only logical price. It doesn't come from the air, you know. If you sell it any lower you sell it underpriced, higher is overpriced, 1kkk is priced just right, period.
Dare to prove me wrong :P
After we should talk about roulette and how casinos are morons and giving money away for free.

Another thing about prices. Let's take the example of Skull Edge. Conditions:

- all these items have unlimited availability under their representing prices:
- 1kkk is a price that fully represents Skull Edge +0
- 70kk is a price that fully represents EWS
- 1kkk is a price that fully represents SA
- 500kk is a price that fully represents 150 element

Remember how i said that thinking "you can't apply an even price to an over-enchanted item"? This doesn't apply here.
Skull Edge +0 through +14 +SA/element actually does NOT have once price.
Skull Edge +0 +SA is NOT worth 2kkk. For that price you can get Skull Edge +0 AND items for SA separately - they're worth MORE when separate than when bound together. It's because of options: you have less possibilities with Skull Edge +0 +SA than with those items when they're separate. Maybe your buyer wants to enchant the weapon before putting SA?

Sun, 05/22/2016 - 14:58

volekf

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Joined: 04/26/2015 - 11:09

Re: Pricing

maybe you want to make an excel sheet with formulas :P

So we all know for what price to sell our items :)

Watson

Sun, 05/22/2016 - 15:42

loar

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Joined: 03/26/2013 - 22:29

Re: Pricing

Hard to use a formula for prices on a F2P Lineage 2 server that has been up for 3+ years. You also need to calculate the human essence formula in your equation. Then also depending on the essence on the weapon the price could go up and or down depending on the person desiring it and his desired element. Supply and demand is basically the driven economy. +4 will never be worth twice as much as a +3.

Wed, 05/25/2016 - 12:58

Chandra Nalaar

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Last seen: 7 years 11 months ago

Joined: 01/25/2015 - 13:24

Re: Pricing

This post is a mess, it's wrong in a couple of ways.
Volek im too lazy to write excel formula i want to teach people to fish.
Loar if by human essence you mean that people decide prices for clean or +3 items themselves then yes, but it's impossible to count that in a formula.
That's why i have my assumptions, it's designed so that people can calculate the estimated price of a +6 item according to the price they think is good for a +3.
It's like thinking "I would pay 600kk for a +3 item to enchant it, this guy is selling a +4 item for 1kkk is this cheaper or more expensive than my expectations?" the answer is provided by the simplest formula.
Yes, +4 won't be worth twice as much as a +3, but i didn't say it will.
Yes, +4 won't be worth 150% of +3's price (wait a minute, my whole first post is trying to convince that's actually true WTF?)
Economy will always be driven by supply and demand, that's how humen (or humans?) estimate items' value, but since, for example, armor pieces +6 are almost the same item as +3 (because almost all armor pieces try to go to +6), they kind of "share" supply and demand but are different quality than items with more office prices.
The formula was mean to only teach people how to check if some item's price came from air or calculations, which should make deciding whether a trade is satisfying or not easier.
Because sometimes people's offers come out of air and not even the refreshing type of it.
Example:
No example, that would be rude. But it happens too often.

Prices should be slightly lower than the formula suggests. How slightly its up to each player to decide, im not experienced enough to do it, i only analyse stuff theoretically. Presented above.

Wed, 05/25/2016 - 15:04

volekf

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Joined: 04/26/2015 - 11:09

Re: Pricing

Best would be if you started your thought with 1.definition of the problem.

Then Briefly explain 2.what causes it.

Then provide something that you believe is a 3.solution.

Above text is just something about math that cannot be applied to supply/demand driven economy of game server.
IMO.

Watson

Thu, 05/26/2016 - 01:19

loar

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Re: Pricing

Thu, 05/26/2016 - 11:51

Chandra Nalaar

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Joined: 01/25/2015 - 13:24

Re: Pricing

You're right idk how to write readable posts.

It can be applied, IMO. Imagine this situation: You pay to NPC 10kk adena (unlimited speed of clicking) and have 1% chance of getting uber item, otherwise u get nothing.
Wouldn't You want to know how much you'd pay for a single of those items to the NPC statistically? Or if someone told You they'll sell it for 2kkk because they dont need anymore, would You say "Meh, i'm too lazy to calculate, this guy's probably done it and he sells cheaper than NPC" or "Omg 2kkk?! I can pay 10kk and have it if i'm lucky this guy's trying to rip me off!"

I'm tired, I'm not doing this for myself, you know, do wat u want, think wat u will.

Fri, 05/27/2016 - 05:53

loar

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Joined: 03/26/2013 - 22:29

Re: Pricing

I calculate things on trades all the time. Although the crazy flucuation of the market on this server is impossible to statistically calculate. I can only calculate the items worth to me not the market. This market is flippen nuts. I can not figure it out. It jumps up and down depending on who is impatient or not.

Fri, 05/27/2016 - 08:59

Chandra Nalaar

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Last seen: 7 years 11 months ago

Joined: 01/25/2015 - 13:24

Re: Pricing

I was going to not respond to this thread anymore.
But Your comment Loar surprised me.
"I can only calculate the items worth to me not the market" exactly.
People tend to be right so:
offering a too high price results on an uncomfortably long waiting time or never selling the item (which is bad for you and whole server's economics)
offering a too low price will result on somebody gladly buying it from you underpriced. Which is obviously a loss of money.
Calculating how much items are worth to YOU protects you. I'm trying to convince more people to do it.
Thanks for reading and responses.

Mon, 05/30/2016 - 04:13

#10

loar

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Joined: 03/26/2013 - 22:29

Re: Pricing

Some items I give away because they do not sell. I do blow up a ton of gear though. I probably should stop that and try to circulate gear at a lower price than the massively over inflated market. Unfortunately those who are inflating the market will buy up everything I put on sell for a more reasonable price and then turn around and try to sell it for the inflated price they are at the moment. Our clan has already been talking about attempting to lower the market price. I am sure it is possible, but it will not be easy.